RIDINGTHEBUND - Euro Bund Future Trading (FGBL)

I got some questions about my 118.39/50 resistance. It comes from the back adjusted monthly chart. Pls click on it to enlarge it. Thank you very much.

Regards.

Mike

Hearing comments about DEFLATION …. Chart is still holding big time resistances …. but if 118.39/50 will be broken there is more potential on the upside up to 119 and 119.30 today … I hate these talks and fundamentals . My friend Oli (http://ridingthedax.com) means : It could be an explosion :-). And I think he is right.

Just to be aware only …. If market stops above 118.39/50 I’m looking a little bit stupid right now … Ok, sometimes it happens

But …. and but again …. we are below resistances, not above it !!!! So I have still a chance

ATTENTION : BUND MADE WHAT HE HAD TO DO …

The Euro BUND Future (Dec08) made what he had to make …. new high above 118.01.. It was difficult enough. If I see what he made/traded in the last 4 days I lost my feeling for strength in the “BUND”. Yes, my technical target is still 118.39/50 - which you can see in my chart. But my personal target is reached right now. Big time pressure from the buy-side looks totally different …. in my eyes.

If you are long … good luck and hold it. But please be aware on more big strong resistances here around 118.06/09 - 118.14/17 and further 118.23/25 and so on and so on …. I don’t want to be long here after the 118.04 high. I saw big time selling close below 118.00. Maybe some “biggies” are selling “BUND” on the base of the big monthly “W-Formation” (in adjusted monthly charts to see only) and into the “ROLL” on next expiration in 3 weeks.

That’s it. Regards.

Mike

Attention please : Euro BUND Future (Dec08) tested the upside, failed on 118.00 but hasn’t confirmed the breakout above connection of daily high’s 117.82-117.72 @117.65 … But battle is not over !!!!!!

You could say : “We already have seen what I wanted to see ….” . But I think the bull rally is not over. “Bund” tested my “RED ZONE” on my sheet and confirmed it wit a step back to the roots. A shame that he didn’t closed above 117.65 on the previous hourly bar. But as long as “Bund” is still holding the range of last hour or maximum previous daily high, everything looks to be fine for longs.

Yes, it looks dangerous now. We made a new high above 117.82, we closed below 117.82/72/65 and got no new highs in the indicators right now. Alert for negative divergences. But I want to wait and try to be patient. Right from the chart everything above 117.12/116.95 is still bullish and we will get no confirmations for possible negative divergences. Let’s see how it plays out.

Good luck.

BOE and ECB rate announcement today …. so what ? Euro BUND Future (Dec08) : “YES, he can !”

Mr. Obama said it : “Yes, we can …. ” . So why not “our BUND” ? In my eyes the technical situation right from the charts and indicators is “light” bullish. After yesterday’s V-Formation and my call to change my outlook above 116.75/80 …. as expected. Ok, but now we are on very interesting and important levels. THE BATTLE STARTS !!!

Without the BOE and ECB rate announcement today and the same technical situation, the “BUND” would trade above big resistance between 117.72/82. That’s for sure. But we are below the 117.53/57 resistance with my WEEKLY EXTREMZONE (absolute) @117.57 up to 117.82. We already tested this level and are in consolidation mode. Every hourly close between 117.53/57 and 117.11/12 and 116.95 is still a consolidation. I know this is a 60 tick range. But the “BUND” needs breath to continue on the upside. Then more breath he takes so stronger will be the move on the upside. With the situation from the indicators : “Yes, I think the “BUND” has a good chance today to test and/or take out 117.72/82 !”.

Everybody is aware of the BOE/ECB rate decisions and maybe is/was afraid to buy this wide overall trend confirming consolidation and first try on the upside. So who wants to be long and is still waiting, has to buy it higher above or around 117.72/82. For possible targets on the upside please take a look on my sheet or take an eye on the Fibo Extensions on my chart and the parallel line on the upside on previous upmove. BUT WE NEED A BOURLY CLOSE AT LEAST ABOVE THE CONNECTION OF THE DAILY HIGH’s 117.82-117.72 @117.65 !!!!!

I’m bullish on 118.39 … Maybe today or tomorrow and I’m not afraid to be wrong … it happens all the times :-). A break back below 117.11/12 and a hourly close below 116.95 …. I expect to be wrong.

Regards.

Good Luck … Mike

Fake … Update

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) continued to trade down after stops below 116.85/80. Fake was confirmed below 116.60, which I called earlier. Today’s LOD (low of the day) hit my WEEKLY/MONTHLY-OPENING and my Daily ATR Target on the down-side. So good so far.

Old support zone around 116.21 to 116.46 works as a resistance zone now and could/should be a consolidation high after the LOD. I see a maximum consolidation up to the old confirmation level 116.60, my MARKETPIVOT 116.66 and the Daily Pivot S1. If this level holds as a resistance I get a high probability for a re-test of the lows today with support zone 115.96 down to 115.88 and further 115.54 the still open gap. Above 116.75/80 my picture for further movements maybe will change, because the overall intra-day chart is a bigger consolidation with still trend-confirming character.

Lets see how it will play.

Good luck.

One point only …. Please be aware on a possible fake on the upside around 117.10

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) is now on calculated resist between 117.06/11, based on previous consolidation range 116.94-116.50. With a new HOD (high of the day) @117.11 the BUND didn’t confirmed a possible breakout, which it looks like. Further we have here the 76.2% FIBO RETRACEMENT based on the previous down move from 117.46 down to 115.88. In my experiences there is a high probability to finish the correction from 115.88. Another point is that this last movement could be a a-b-c-correction as well. Is it finished ? Hmmm … maybe …. Confirmation ? I expect a confirmation below 116.60.

Please don”t get me wrong ! I’m not “mega” bearish, but this chart situation is a chance to fake to get all players long, to stop them below 116.85/80 and then to squeeze this market out. So a possible breakout of this consolidation will be confirmed with a hourly close above 117.11 only.

Just to be aware of it.

Good luck. regards. Mike

Correction : So a possible breakout of this consolidation will be confirmed with a 30min bar close above 117.11 only.

Our “BUND” reached the maximum upside target around the 117.00 level . We got the hit at the connection of daily highs, we got the hit at the parallel line of the short-term intraday uptrend. The “BUND” is big time overbought in a strong uptrend with some divergences. These divergences will be confirmed at least with a re-break back below 116.75/71 (Friday’s daily high). The “Volume Delta” looks like we see some “Long”-covering here around 117.00. I would not be surprised if we see decreasing up-momentum and some weakness. But until the “BUND” shows not confirmed negative divergences below 116.75/71 with a hourly close of a bar, I will not recommend shorts. Further resists can be found around 117.00/117.10 and 117.26/36 with the still open gap from the 03/20/2008. Above this last resistance level I have calculated levels only around 117.50.

Just to be aware : A finish of an strong up-rally comes with divergences and a negative “Market-Delta”.

Boom…Boom…Booooooooooooooooooooooom

Keep cool …. Guy’s. Bond markets with big time short squeeze after re-break back above old down breakout zone 114.75 up to old resist 116.05/13. What’s next ? I read three technical comments this morning. All of them tried to tell me : “Go long !!” Yepp I do …. Maybe later this year !!!

I wrote you yesterday that with a 60min close above 115.20 charts are looking “bullish”. Yes, short-term. We tested the previous resistance and daily high at 116.05/13 after that. But what I don`t like : very low volume on the upside from 115.60 up to 116.07 with negative volume delta (!!), the combination of the last three bars in hourly charts and a daily close below the main long-term already broken uptrend @115.89. What I`m missing now is at least one tick new high above 116.13 with a divergence between price and indicators. Everyone is looking for this new high. Maybe this could be the problem for today. 

The “BUND” chart looks very overbought and in “trendy hot red zone”. A first warner for buyers could/should be a hourly close below the short-term intraday uptrend and pivot high @115.61 in the morning. At least they should wake up below 115.33/16 support zone with today’s daily pivot point, significant hourly pivot/consolidation low and fibonacci support based on previous steeply upmove from 113.70. Below this support level they should feel fear, because of the changing momentum which could bring us back down to the main wide support level around 115/114.75. I expect a crashing “BUND” below this main support. Without any new significant high above 116.03 this looks like a big doubletop (DT) with this scenario. In the potatos and out of the potatos …. “brainless”.

But what’s with the upside. Right from the chart there is the higher probability to test the upside again. My first price target above 116.13 is the zone between 116.20/40. This is my key resist for today. I don’t expect a significant rebreak above this resistzone after 60min of trading today. But you never know how these guys are thinking with month/quarter end in pain. More resists are expected around 116.57/71 and further 117.10/20.

Don’t get me wrong : I`m not “mega” bullish. Yes, there is more up potential up to 116.20/40 and further 116.70/90 and 117.10/20. You can play it. Good luck. I’m waiting today for a new high above 116.13 with bearish 60min bar/candle, divergences and a break back below 116.13 with good down momentum and volume. Then I’m ready to put my lttle money on the table. Otherwise it’s time to to put your hands in your pockets …. if you are with me on the “Short”-side. 

Maybe we can catch it …. maybe not. 

Good luck for everyone. Don’t loose your head in these wild markets.

Regrads. Mike

Euro BUND Future squeezed out everything …. To much blood on the streets

Every significant technical and calculated resist level is squeezed out now. Me too … not in the “real” account, but with my ideas I had earlier. But let`s figure out what´s possibly coming next. We`ve seen a 2nd squeeze after a hourly close above 114.75. Now we are right on the 200% Fibonacci Extension from the previous consolidation pattern (112.91-114.08-113.25), right on parallel line of the steeply short-term hourly uptrend and back below the consolidation high at 115.43 from the 09/18/2008. Now we are coming in a short-term intraday overbought situation and volatility indications which let me expect seriously, that we could/should see a decreasing up momentum now. Is this 60min close at 115.39 a short opportunity ? My answer is still : YES. Who don’t want to have a risk of a inti-cyclical trade has to think about a new “Short” with a 60min close below 114.75/50 only. “Long” positions are still in good situation until price don’t steps back below last 60min bar/candle low (115.11) which has not trend continuing character (in my eyes).

Further resists you will find at 115.72 - 115.84/88 - 116.05/13 - 116.25/30. Supports are expected on following levels : 115.06/114.98 - 114.91 - 114.82/75 and 114.56/52.

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - 60min Chart (09/29/2008

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Euro BUND Future (DEC08) failed again on resistance 114/114.15. After today´s high at 114.82 we have a first alert that consolidation could be finished … but no confirmation at all !!!

We got it …. new high above 114.08 correction high at 114.82 earlier today. That’s the big point I waited for the last week. This is the first alert that the consolidation from the 112.91 low last week could come to an end. Now we have a possible finished “abc”-consolidation. But it´s not the confirmation that we’ve seen it already.

Shorties are squeezed out now within this short-squeeze from 114.13 up to big resistance level. All were short around 114.00. I read it all the time last week . Please don’t get me wrong : I’m not on the short-side. But now it’s time to think about that :-). We missed to close that 114.85 gap by one tick only. We are still holding resistance 114.75/80, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from 116.13/112.91 down move (114.90) and the long-term broken daily uptrend. A hourly/daily break above 115.10/20 can change the new technical outlook into “LONG”. AND …. now take an eye on a possible SHS-topformation on the daily chart. Ok, we have month/quarter end. But I think it’s a good opportunity to play against the market and the panic.

More significant resists are expected around at 114.90/97 - 115.06/17. If I would be serious active today I would like to sell-short here around 114.70/90 with a stop above 115.20. Supports are expected around 114.50/38 and further 114.21/13/08.

Good luck.