RIDINGTHEBUND - Euro Bund Future Trading (FGBL)

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data

Download link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/12/2008
(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

ATTENTION : BUND MADE WHAT HE HAD TO DO …

The Euro BUND Future (Dec08) made what he had to make …. new high above 118.01.. It was difficult enough. If I see what he made/traded in the last 4 days I lost my feeling for strength in the “BUND”. Yes, my technical target is still 118.39/50 - which you can see in my chart. But my personal target is reached right now. Big time pressure from the buy-side looks totally different …. in my eyes.

If you are long … good luck and hold it. But please be aware on more big strong resistances here around 118.06/09 - 118.14/17 and further 118.23/25 and so on and so on …. I don’t want to be long here after the 118.04 high. I saw big time selling close below 118.00. Maybe some “biggies” are selling “BUND” on the base of the big monthly “W-Formation” (in adjusted monthly charts to see only) and into the “ROLL” on next expiration in 3 weeks.

That’s it. Regards.

Mike

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data

Download link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/11/2008
(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

It should/could be a very important day for the “BUND” today. Therefore I decided to upload my “Daily Chart Levels”-sheet earlier and before today’s OPENING. I will update this sheet with all my calculations based on the opening price and 1st hour of trading after 9pm exchange (EUREX) time.

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data

Download link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/10/2008

(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

Due to technical problems with my chart application I’m not able to calculate levels based on today’s open. Therefore I give you my level sheet earlier today.

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data

Download Link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/07/2008
(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

Attention please : Euro BUND Future (Dec08) tested the upside, failed on 118.00 but hasn’t confirmed the breakout above connection of daily high’s 117.82-117.72 @117.65 … But battle is not over !!!!!!

You could say : “We already have seen what I wanted to see ….” . But I think the bull rally is not over. “Bund” tested my “RED ZONE” on my sheet and confirmed it wit a step back to the roots. A shame that he didn’t closed above 117.65 on the previous hourly bar. But as long as “Bund” is still holding the range of last hour or maximum previous daily high, everything looks to be fine for longs.

Yes, it looks dangerous now. We made a new high above 117.82, we closed below 117.82/72/65 and got no new highs in the indicators right now. Alert for negative divergences. But I want to wait and try to be patient. Right from the chart everything above 117.12/116.95 is still bullish and we will get no confirmations for possible negative divergences. Let’s see how it plays out.

Good luck.

BOE and ECB rate announcement today …. so what ? Euro BUND Future (Dec08) : “YES, he can !”

Mr. Obama said it : “Yes, we can …. ” . So why not “our BUND” ? In my eyes the technical situation right from the charts and indicators is “light” bullish. After yesterday’s V-Formation and my call to change my outlook above 116.75/80 …. as expected. Ok, but now we are on very interesting and important levels. THE BATTLE STARTS !!!

Without the BOE and ECB rate announcement today and the same technical situation, the “BUND” would trade above big resistance between 117.72/82. That’s for sure. But we are below the 117.53/57 resistance with my WEEKLY EXTREMZONE (absolute) @117.57 up to 117.82. We already tested this level and are in consolidation mode. Every hourly close between 117.53/57 and 117.11/12 and 116.95 is still a consolidation. I know this is a 60 tick range. But the “BUND” needs breath to continue on the upside. Then more breath he takes so stronger will be the move on the upside. With the situation from the indicators : “Yes, I think the “BUND” has a good chance today to test and/or take out 117.72/82 !”.

Everybody is aware of the BOE/ECB rate decisions and maybe is/was afraid to buy this wide overall trend confirming consolidation and first try on the upside. So who wants to be long and is still waiting, has to buy it higher above or around 117.72/82. For possible targets on the upside please take a look on my sheet or take an eye on the Fibo Extensions on my chart and the parallel line on the upside on previous upmove. BUT WE NEED A BOURLY CLOSE AT LEAST ABOVE THE CONNECTION OF THE DAILY HIGH’s 117.82-117.72 @117.65 !!!!!

I’m bullish on 118.39 … Maybe today or tomorrow and I’m not afraid to be wrong … it happens all the times :-). A break back below 117.11/12 and a hourly close below 116.95 …. I expect to be wrong.

Regards.

Good Luck … Mike

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data and today’s opening prices
Download Link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/06/2008

(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

After taking lunch I got this one :

ITC_Markets1 Bunds- selling linked to this- German government cabinet has adopted a package of economic growth enhancing measures to counter the expected downturn in the country. The package consist mainly of tax breaks and subsidies, and is expected to stimulate new investments of some E50 billion over the next two years. The plan which is still subject to parliamentary approval, would burden the federal budget by nearly E10.9 billion over the four years from 2009 through 2012, and burden total public budgets by E23 billion over the same period.

……

Regards

Fake … Update

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) continued to trade down after stops below 116.85/80. Fake was confirmed below 116.60, which I called earlier. Today’s LOD (low of the day) hit my WEEKLY/MONTHLY-OPENING and my Daily ATR Target on the down-side. So good so far.

Old support zone around 116.21 to 116.46 works as a resistance zone now and could/should be a consolidation high after the LOD. I see a maximum consolidation up to the old confirmation level 116.60, my MARKETPIVOT 116.66 and the Daily Pivot S1. If this level holds as a resistance I get a high probability for a re-test of the lows today with support zone 115.96 down to 115.88 and further 115.54 the still open gap. Above 116.75/80 my picture for further movements maybe will change, because the overall intra-day chart is a bigger consolidation with still trend-confirming character.

Lets see how it will play.

Good luck.

One point only …. Please be aware on a possible fake on the upside around 117.10

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) is now on calculated resist between 117.06/11, based on previous consolidation range 116.94-116.50. With a new HOD (high of the day) @117.11 the BUND didn’t confirmed a possible breakout, which it looks like. Further we have here the 76.2% FIBO RETRACEMENT based on the previous down move from 117.46 down to 115.88. In my experiences there is a high probability to finish the correction from 115.88. Another point is that this last movement could be a a-b-c-correction as well. Is it finished ? Hmmm … maybe …. Confirmation ? I expect a confirmation below 116.60.

Please don”t get me wrong ! I’m not “mega” bearish, but this chart situation is a chance to fake to get all players long, to stop them below 116.85/80 and then to squeeze this market out. So a possible breakout of this consolidation will be confirmed with a hourly close above 117.11 only.

Just to be aware of it.

Good luck. regards. Mike

Correction : So a possible breakout of this consolidation will be confirmed with a 30min bar close above 117.11 only.

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data and today’s opening prices

Download Link (pdf-file) :
EUro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - (11/05/2008)
(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data and today’s opening prices

Download link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/04/2008

(password protected)

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

*all levels are calculated with Daily/Weekly/Monthly HLC-data and today’s opening prices

Download Link (pdf-file) :

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 11/03/2008
(password protected

Starting today my “Daily Chart Levels” - sheet will be released after 1st hour of trading only.

Regards. Mike