RIDINGTHEBUND - Euro Bund Future Trading (FGBL)

* all levels are based on previous daily/weekly/monthly HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 10/01/2008

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

* all levels are based on today’s open only

117.06 - Daily ATR Resist 4
116.79 - Daily ATR Resist 3
116.71 - ATR 2 Resist/Up Target from Opening Range
116.43 - Double Opening Range on 1st Hour OR High
116.41 - Daily ATR Resist 2
116.20 - ATR 1 Resist/Up Target from Opening Range
116.17 - Daily ATR Resist 1
115.94 - 1st Hour Opening Range High
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115.79 - today’s OPEN
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115.62 - OR Balance Point
115.57 - Daily & 3Day Pivot Range High
115.50 - OR Sell Level (5min close)
115.45 - 1st Hour Opening Range Low
115.39 - Daily ATR Support 1
115.22 - 100.0% Fibonacci Extension (116.07-115.45-115.84)
115.21 - OR Sell Target 1
115.19 - ATR 1 Support/Dn Target from Opening Range
115.13 - Daily ATR Support 2
115.03 - OR Sell Target 2
114.99 - 138.2% Fibonacci Extension (116.07-115.45-115.84)
114.96 - Double Opening Range on 1st HourOR Low
114.95 - Daily & 3Day Pivot Range Low
114.84 - 161.8% Fibonacci Extension (116.07-115.45-115.84)

Boom…Boom…Booooooooooooooooooooooom

Keep cool …. Guy’s. Bond markets with big time short squeeze after re-break back above old down breakout zone 114.75 up to old resist 116.05/13. What’s next ? I read three technical comments this morning. All of them tried to tell me : “Go long !!” Yepp I do …. Maybe later this year !!!

I wrote you yesterday that with a 60min close above 115.20 charts are looking “bullish”. Yes, short-term. We tested the previous resistance and daily high at 116.05/13 after that. But what I don`t like : very low volume on the upside from 115.60 up to 116.07 with negative volume delta (!!), the combination of the last three bars in hourly charts and a daily close below the main long-term already broken uptrend @115.89. What I`m missing now is at least one tick new high above 116.13 with a divergence between price and indicators. Everyone is looking for this new high. Maybe this could be the problem for today. 

The “BUND” chart looks very overbought and in “trendy hot red zone”. A first warner for buyers could/should be a hourly close below the short-term intraday uptrend and pivot high @115.61 in the morning. At least they should wake up below 115.33/16 support zone with today’s daily pivot point, significant hourly pivot/consolidation low and fibonacci support based on previous steeply upmove from 113.70. Below this support level they should feel fear, because of the changing momentum which could bring us back down to the main wide support level around 115/114.75. I expect a crashing “BUND” below this main support. Without any new significant high above 116.03 this looks like a big doubletop (DT) with this scenario. In the potatos and out of the potatos …. “brainless”.

But what’s with the upside. Right from the chart there is the higher probability to test the upside again. My first price target above 116.13 is the zone between 116.20/40. This is my key resist for today. I don’t expect a significant rebreak above this resistzone after 60min of trading today. But you never know how these guys are thinking with month/quarter end in pain. More resists are expected around 116.57/71 and further 117.10/20.

Don’t get me wrong : I`m not “mega” bullish. Yes, there is more up potential up to 116.20/40 and further 116.70/90 and 117.10/20. You can play it. Good luck. I’m waiting today for a new high above 116.13 with bearish 60min bar/candle, divergences and a break back below 116.13 with good down momentum and volume. Then I’m ready to put my lttle money on the table. Otherwise it’s time to to put your hands in your pockets …. if you are with me on the “Short”-side. 

Maybe we can catch it …. maybe not. 

Good luck for everyone. Don’t loose your head in these wild markets.

Regrads. Mike

* all levels are based on previous daily/weekly/monthly HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - 60min chart

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/30/2008

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times

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Euro BUND Future squeezed out everything …. To much blood on the streets

Every significant technical and calculated resist level is squeezed out now. Me too … not in the “real” account, but with my ideas I had earlier. But let`s figure out what´s possibly coming next. We`ve seen a 2nd squeeze after a hourly close above 114.75. Now we are right on the 200% Fibonacci Extension from the previous consolidation pattern (112.91-114.08-113.25), right on parallel line of the steeply short-term hourly uptrend and back below the consolidation high at 115.43 from the 09/18/2008. Now we are coming in a short-term intraday overbought situation and volatility indications which let me expect seriously, that we could/should see a decreasing up momentum now. Is this 60min close at 115.39 a short opportunity ? My answer is still : YES. Who don’t want to have a risk of a inti-cyclical trade has to think about a new “Short” with a 60min close below 114.75/50 only. “Long” positions are still in good situation until price don’t steps back below last 60min bar/candle low (115.11) which has not trend continuing character (in my eyes).

Further resists you will find at 115.72 - 115.84/88 - 116.05/13 - 116.25/30. Supports are expected on following levels : 115.06/114.98 - 114.91 - 114.82/75 and 114.56/52.

Euro BUND Future (Dec08) - 60min Chart (09/29/2008

Level update because of the panic price extension on the upside

115.50 - Daily Piv. R4
115.37 - 76.4% Fibonacci Retracement from prev. swing 116.13/112.91)
115.23 - Monthly ExtremZone up - normal (115.23/73)
115.13 - 161.8% Fibonacci Extension (112.91-114.08-113.25)
115.12 - Calc. Resist zone from actual up swing 113.70-114.82 (115.12 up to 115.25)
115.07 - Weekly ExtremZone up - absolute (115.07/32) + Monthly Piv. R1
115.00 - 161.8% Fibonacci Extension (113.25-114.06-113.70)
114.94 - Daily Piv. R3
114.90 - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from prev. swing 116.13/112.91)
114.85 - GAP (18./19.09) + 138.2% Fibonacci Extension (112.91-114.08-113.25)
114.83 - daily low (18.09.)
114.82 - today’s daily high
114.80 - Weekly Piv. R2 + 138.2% Fibonacci Extension (113.25-114.06-113.70)
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114.56 - Weekly ATR Resist 1
114.52 - Daily ATR Resist 2
114.43 - today’s VAH (so far at 1040 am exchange time)
114.39 - 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (113.70-114.82)
114.38 - Daily Piv. R2
114.26 - 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement (113.70-114.82)
114.13 - today’s OR high + 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (113.70-114.82)
114.09 - 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (112.91-114.82)
114.08 - Daily high (24.09.)
114.06 - previous daily high
114.01 - broken 60min down trend (116.13-115.84)
113.99 - today’s POC (so far at 1040 am exchange time)

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Euro BUND Future (DEC08) failed again on resistance 114/114.15. After today´s high at 114.82 we have a first alert that consolidation could be finished … but no confirmation at all !!!

We got it …. new high above 114.08 correction high at 114.82 earlier today. That’s the big point I waited for the last week. This is the first alert that the consolidation from the 112.91 low last week could come to an end. Now we have a possible finished “abc”-consolidation. But it´s not the confirmation that we’ve seen it already.

Shorties are squeezed out now within this short-squeeze from 114.13 up to big resistance level. All were short around 114.00. I read it all the time last week . Please don’t get me wrong : I’m not on the short-side. But now it’s time to think about that :-). We missed to close that 114.85 gap by one tick only. We are still holding resistance 114.75/80, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement from 116.13/112.91 down move (114.90) and the long-term broken daily uptrend. A hourly/daily break above 115.10/20 can change the new technical outlook into “LONG”. AND …. now take an eye on a possible SHS-topformation on the daily chart. Ok, we have month/quarter end. But I think it’s a good opportunity to play against the market and the panic.

More significant resists are expected around at 114.90/97 - 115.06/17. If I would be serious active today I would like to sell-short here around 114.70/90 with a stop above 115.20. Supports are expected around 114.50/38 and further 114.21/13/08.

Good luck.

All calculated levels based on today’s open have no new important impact. So I write these levels down without making a new pdf-sheet.

New calculated levels based on today’s opening :

Resistance :

114.56 - Weekly ATR Resist 1
114.52 - Daily ATR Resist 2
114.51 - OR 2nd Target
114.46 - Daily ExtremZone up - absolute (114.46/51) - based on open
114.44 - double OR up target
114.35 - OR 1st Target
114.28 - Daily ATR Resist 1
114.19 - OR Long Confirmation
114.18 - Daily ExtremZone up - normal (114.18/23) - based on open
114.13 - 1st hour OR high
114.09 - OR Buy level (5min close)
113.98 - POC (PointofControl)

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113.90 - Open
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Supports :

113.82 - 1st hour OR low
113.77 - RTB MarketPivot
113.75 - OR Sell level (5min close)
113.73 - Gap
113.62 - Daily ExtremZone dn - normal (113.62/57) - based on open
113.57 - OR 1st Target
113.52 - Daily ATR Support 1
113.51 - double OR dn target
113.34 - Daily ExtremZone dn - absolute (113.34/29) - based on open
113.28 - Daily ATR Support 2

* all levels are based on previous daily/weekly/monthly HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading

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EURO BUND FUTURE (Dec.08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/29/2008

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times
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* all levels are based on previous daily/weekly/monthly HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading
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EURO BUND FUTURE (Dec.08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/26/2008

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times
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* all levels are based on previous daily HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading

EURO BUND FUTURE (Dec.08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/25/2008

* all times are exchange (EUREX) times
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* all levels are based on previous daily HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading

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EURO BUND FUTURE (Dec.08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/24/2008
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* all times are exchange (EUREX) times
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* all levels are based on previous daily HLC only … please check for updates with calculated levels from today’s open after 1st hour of trading
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EURO BUND FUTURE (Dec.08) - Daily Chart Levels - 09/23/2008
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* all times are exchange (EUREX) times